WHERE THE SHINE IS GONE

IN MY VIEW NIFTY ABOVE 8420 CLOSING WILL TOUCH 9000 & BELOW THIS LEVEL WE MAY 7800 THIS EXPIRY

Is the euphoria fading?

If the market moves of the last eight days are of any consequence, surely the fire of ‘teji’ is cooling off and the so-called feel good factor losing out on deliverance. The headlines of a pink paper described the fall as the euphoria coming to an end but in reality the hopes of change raised the sentiment to a new peak. The industry barons also sounded optimistic at the change of guard.The first one hundred days score card was excellent but as politics sunk in and as marginal leaders raised their heads and voice loudly or abusively, the programme of development got diluted in amending the errors of erring members of the ruling party and the government. The non-functioning of Parliament is developing into the replay of the last Lok Sabha and if the BJP stalwarts cannot shed their petty thinking, the NaMo programme of radical change may be mortgaged at dismal lows and the golden opportunity of making a difference lost.Global cues had pressurized the world markets early ovember 2014 too but the FII inflows were robust and hopes of robust inflows continued. Come December 2014, and the whole scenario changes! Instead of fund flows remaining robust, the tide turned negative. Corporate India instead of being ecstatic about the changes, was seemingly developing an agonizing pain. Six months after the Modi sarkaar assumed power amidst great expectations, many industry barons are concerned about the PM's lack of boldness and his uccumbing to pressure of factional politics. The reforms package being talked about may have radical ideas but lack the will and courage to move ahead. Procrastination as evident in the yester years of the UPA rule shows signs of returning and the industry fears that the economy is slipping back into a paralytic zone. The country's infrastructure sector is in a virtual jam because of high debt and unless a fresh stance is adopted with foreign capital inflows this will not be unlocked. At a closed door Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) meeting, top industrialists voiced their concern over lack of boldness in the government's efforts to kick-start economic growth and the seeming absence of moving radical ideas forward. The concerns on India Inc’s mind are many. The lack of pace of reforms, absence of substance and force to bring it in. The defreezing of Rs.18 lakh crore investments in infrastructure segment and problems of its refinancing. Bank's recapitalization and ease in land acquisition have yet to come in and as long as it does not get in the capex does not get wings. Uncertainty over GST and the Vodafone type of tax litigation are keeping the FII fund flows at an ebb. In short, the Parliament session may come to an end without transacting any serious business. Coming months may see the budgetary exercises taking place and high hopes are being raised for the same. It is very likely that the market may restart its upmove pre-budget but the will to walk the talk is missing. Thus the market amidst volatility and lack of will to perform, may witness profit booking at high levels. Till then, watch the moves closely.