Medium Term Market View - 30.03.15

Medium Term Market View - 30.03.15 -

“BRACE YOURSELF FOR A SUPER BULL RIDE, 9400/9600 IS READY TO WELCOME NIFTY WITH FIREWORKS" 

 In our last Mid Market view published on 11th March we kept our long term positional bullish view intact which we are maintianing since 5900 levels, but for trading purpose we gave sl of 8650 and below that advised shorts also which we exited later in some loss due to extreme volatility in market on back of various news flows and since then we were waiting for another safe opportunity to enter again.

 After breaking below 8650 Nifty corrected smartly and quite fast too to the levels of 8270, proving our decision 100% right to exit below 8650 so that we can enter longs again at safe levels.

 From it’s All time high of 9120 Nifty witnessed it’s first meaningful correction of current bull run by correcting almost 10% to 8270 in just 17 trading session.

 Now What Next ? 😐

Are we near bottom ? 

Is there more correction left ?

Is Bull run over ?

 Let us give answer for above questions in one line - “BRACE YOURSELF FOR A SUPER BULL RIDE, 9400/9600 READY TO WELCOME NIFTY WITH FIREWORKS” 

As per our analysis Nifty has corrected 100% inline with our view and corrected enough to the levels where one should feel more comfortable in going long.

 Immediate important support for Nifty is 8250, and below this 8100-8050 which is a major major support zone.

 So from here Add longs in any dip towards 8260-8280 zone (We have already added longs @ 8350 & 8290 on Friday).

 Traders can keep sl in current long trade @ 8240, 

 Positional traders may keep without any sl and use every dip to add longs as per given levels below.

 If in case Nifty breaks below 8240 then it can slip a bit more towards 8100-8150 levels, which will be very good levels to add longs again,

 So below 8240 add long again @ 8100-8150 zone.

 In worst case Nifty may see max 8050-8100 levels not more than that and that too has very low probability according to us, 

 Hence We will keep our sl @ close below 8050 for positional Nifty long.

 On upside major resistance now stands @ 8600-8650 and break above this level should give Nifty more comfort to move upwards safely towards our target.

 Above 8650 important resistance comes @ 8875-8900.

 Our immediate target for Nifty long is 8600-8650 and then 8875-8900, positional target @ 9400/9600.

 On longer term as earlier we maintain our bullish view which we are keeping since levels of 5900-6000, investors should use any significant dip to add value stocks in their portfolio.

 Nifty Short Term Key Supports - 8250/8170/8100/8050

 Nifty Short Term Key Resistance - 8400/8600-8650/8875-8900/9120.

 Our Market view has been 99% accurate since we started posting it and continue to deliver amazing gains for our followers. 

 Overall conclusion is Just Buy Nifty and hold, and remember -

“Why to fear, When time to Cheer"

 ALL LEVELS ARE  TO SPOT.

Did Coal India’s share divestment trigger the stock market fall on Friday?

Did Coal India’s share divestment trigger the stock market fall on Friday?

Before an answer to the question can be attempted, let us look at some facts and figures.

The government had offerred to divest 5% of its equity holding at a ‘floor price’ of Rs 358, with a 5% ‘greenshoe’ option. What that means in plain English is that in case of an oversubscription, the government would part with a total of 10% of its equity holding.

As per reports, there was an oversubscription. That also means the offer price may be a little higher than the floor price.

The total amount likely to be realised from the share divestment is a huge Rs 24000 Crores – which is more than 50% higher than the amount realised from Coal India’s IPO back in Oct ‘10.

FIIs put in bids worth a reported Rs 5400 Crores. That is about the size of their net investment in equities in an average month. Since FIIs were net sellers of equity yesterday, it is fair to conclude that some of them booked profits in the secondary market to invest in Coal India’s offer.

That leaves a balance of more than Rs 18000 Crores, which must have been invested by DIIs and individual investors. DIIs were also net sellers of equity on Friday. Some of them must also have booked profits in the secondary market to finance their investment in Coal India’s offer.

So, the obvious answer to the question is a qualified ‘Yes’. Why qualified?

Because stock markets don’t fall on facts alone. They also fall on expectations of future events. As per a recent article in Business Standard, in the pipeline are divestments from ONGC worth Rs 15000 Crores, and HDFC Bank worth Rs 10000 Crores. Both offers are going to receive enthusiastic support from investors of all hues. There are smaller offers from PFC (Rs 1900 Crores) and REC (Rs 1600 Crores) that are awaiting government’s nod.

To top it all, a few PSU banks came out with disappointing Q3 results. Since the stock market was at a lifetime high after a 10 day rally that pushed technical indicators into their overbought zones, the stage was ideally set for a correction.

Putting matters into perspective, Sensex and Nifty corrected by about 2% from their lifetime highs touched yesterday, and closed marginally lower for the week. Some more correction may be on the cards till the overhang of share divestments is dissipated. The dip can be used to add to fundamentally strong stocks in your portfolios.

That was the long answer. The short answer is: Yes

Just think calmly

Just think calmly

󾮜Inflation falling

󾮜Interest rate falling

󾮜Crude falling

󾮜Rupee much stable than global currency

󾮜Commodity falling

󾮜 court clear coal matter so Coal issue solved

󾮜 court cleared Spectrum issue 

󾮜tradtional pre budget rally time

󾮜 global economy weak so no chance of interest rate hike n easy money will remain in system same new easy money will come!!

󾮜Govt taking reforms

Many...........

Keeping these in mind feel it is only technical correction n not bear market fall. I may b wrong wat you say ?

WHERE THE SHINE IS GONE

IN MY VIEW NIFTY ABOVE 8420 CLOSING WILL TOUCH 9000 & BELOW THIS LEVEL WE MAY 7800 THIS EXPIRY

Is the euphoria fading?

If the market moves of the last eight days are of any consequence, surely the fire of ‘teji’ is cooling off and the so-called feel good factor losing out on deliverance. The headlines of a pink paper described the fall as the euphoria coming to an end but in reality the hopes of change raised the sentiment to a new peak. The industry barons also sounded optimistic at the change of guard.The first one hundred days score card was excellent but as politics sunk in and as marginal leaders raised their heads and voice loudly or abusively, the programme of development got diluted in amending the errors of erring members of the ruling party and the government. The non-functioning of Parliament is developing into the replay of the last Lok Sabha and if the BJP stalwarts cannot shed their petty thinking, the NaMo programme of radical change may be mortgaged at dismal lows and the golden opportunity of making a difference lost.Global cues had pressurized the world markets early ovember 2014 too but the FII inflows were robust and hopes of robust inflows continued. Come December 2014, and the whole scenario changes! Instead of fund flows remaining robust, the tide turned negative. Corporate India instead of being ecstatic about the changes, was seemingly developing an agonizing pain. Six months after the Modi sarkaar assumed power amidst great expectations, many industry barons are concerned about the PM's lack of boldness and his uccumbing to pressure of factional politics. The reforms package being talked about may have radical ideas but lack the will and courage to move ahead. Procrastination as evident in the yester years of the UPA rule shows signs of returning and the industry fears that the economy is slipping back into a paralytic zone. The country's infrastructure sector is in a virtual jam because of high debt and unless a fresh stance is adopted with foreign capital inflows this will not be unlocked. At a closed door Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) meeting, top industrialists voiced their concern over lack of boldness in the government's efforts to kick-start economic growth and the seeming absence of moving radical ideas forward. The concerns on India Inc’s mind are many. The lack of pace of reforms, absence of substance and force to bring it in. The defreezing of Rs.18 lakh crore investments in infrastructure segment and problems of its refinancing. Bank's recapitalization and ease in land acquisition have yet to come in and as long as it does not get in the capex does not get wings. Uncertainty over GST and the Vodafone type of tax litigation are keeping the FII fund flows at an ebb. In short, the Parliament session may come to an end without transacting any serious business. Coming months may see the budgetary exercises taking place and high hopes are being raised for the same. It is very likely that the market may restart its upmove pre-budget but the will to walk the talk is missing. Thus the market amidst volatility and lack of will to perform, may witness profit booking at high levels. Till then, watch the moves closely.

Market slips as rail comes move

Despite accomplishing new feat in the opening trade on Tuesday, Nifty and its counterpart Sensex saw the biggest fall (in terms of points) in current calendar year. The street pressed the panic button when a sudden rush in profit-booking engulfed the market. In the mayhem that ensued, Sensex lost more than 500 points while broader markets got its share of batteringcrashed. Since the market started falling after a rather unexciting Railway Budget, experts feel the Union Budget, to be presented on July 10 may also lead to a similar crashed.

In the opening trade the Nifty had crossed 7800-mark for the first time.

The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 517.97 points or 1.98 percent to close at 25582.11 after hitting an intraday low of 25495.04 (down 605 points). The 50-share NSE Nifty plunged 163.95 points or 2.11 percent to 7623.20 after seeing day's low of 7,595.90. Meanwhile, the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices, which rallied the most year-to-date, were down 3.6 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively.

Such correction was needed as the market had seen hefty run up from elections days till pre-Budget, say experts, adding indices had overreacted on hopes of strong Budget. According to them, positive factors from the Budget already priced in and from here on, the market will focus on inflation, April-June quarter earnings and Budget. However, they advise buying on such sharp corrections as long term is very strong for India.

Market participants should brace for another 30-40 point correction from the current level because of the sharp sentiment damage which has happened today, says Kunal Bothra, Head of Advisory, LKP.

Dilip Bhat of Prabhudas Lilladher recommends traders to avoid buying the dips and keep their commitment light until Budget is out of market's way.

According to Bhat, in the short-term, the Nifty can fall to 7,300-7,400 maximum, but it will still remain a buy on dips market.

The fall in global markets too may have dampened sentiment with the major European markets losing half a percent.

However, foreign institutional investors were net buyers amid today's big correction; they bought Rs 422.72 crore worth of equity shares while domestic institutional investors sold Rs 399.56 crore of shares, as per provisional data available with exchange.

Meanwhile, on the home turf, Railway minister DV Sadananda Gowda today presented his first Rail Budget in the Lok Sabha. The minister's speech once again highlighted the financial mess that the Indian Railways is facing.

Allowing FDI in railway, safety, modernisation, encouraging private investment, launching of high-speed trains, diamond quadrilateral project and targets to complete pending projects were the main themes of the Railway Budget.

“The Railway Minister did touch upon key aspects and has shown the intent to turnaround Indian Railways into a commercially viable and customer friendly organization but the specifics of few announcements are awaited, says Arvind Mahajan, Partner and Head of Infrastructure and Government Services, KPMG.

Railway stocks like Kalindee Rail, Stone India, Kernex Microsystems, BEML and Titagarh Wagons plunged 5 percent each due to lack of clarity on various proposals and projects. Texmaco Rail (down 20 percent) was the biggest loser among these stocks whereas CMC (up 0.5 percent), A2Z Maintenance (up 5 percent) and Moser Baer (up 4 percent) saw buying interest.

On the sectoral front, BSE Realty Index hit very badly, falling over 7 percent followed by Capital Goods, Metal, Oil & Gas, Bank and Auto indices with 2-5 percent. Healthcare and IT fell over a percent.

Shares of L&T, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, ONGC, State Bank of India, BHEL, NTPC, Tata Steel, Coal India, DLF and Tata Power were prominent losers among largecaps, shedding 3-8 percent. The fall in TCS and HDFC Bank was less compared other stocks, declining over a percent.

However, housing finance company HDFC and drug maker Sun Pharma bucked the trend, gaining 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.

In the broader space, Adani Enterprises, Adani Power, Apollo Tyres, CESC, Crompton Greaves, GMR Infrastructure, IDBI Bank, IFCI, India Cements, JSW Energy, OBC, Power Finance Corporation, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Communications, Siemens, Unitech and Voltas plunged 5-12 percent.

Declining shares beat advancing ones by a ratio of 2230 to 770 on the BSE.

Meanwhile, the rupee recovered, appreciating by 23 paise to close at 59.78 a dollar. Brent crude (August futures) dropped below USD 110 a barrel on easing geopolitical tension, losing 0.6 percent to USD 109.58 a barrel.

Market view on 2/7/14

Views on markets today

- Markets gained for the third straight day, amid strong buying interest from foreign institutional investors, with auto and metal shares leading the gains. However, IT stocks retreated because of a weak growth forecast by Gartner.

The Sensex climbed 102 points to close at 25,516 and the Nifty advanced 23 points to end at 7,635.

- Auto and Metal indices were among the top sectoral gainers up 2-3%. Capital Goods and Realty indices edged up 1% each. Meanwhile, capital goods shares continued their uptrend after a private survey showed that India's manufacturing sector growth in June. L&T and BHEL ended up 1% each.

- IT majors witnessed profit taking after IT research firm Gartner trimmed its worldwide IT spend growth forecast to 2.1% from 3.2% earlier. TCS, Infosys and Wipro ended down 0.8-1.2%.

- Among the BSE Sectoral Indices - indices ended the day in positive while 4 ended the day in negative. Top Gainers: BSE Auto up by 3.24% and BSE Metal by 2.03%. Top Losers: BSE Teck down by 0.55% and BSE Oil & Gas by 0.54%.

Market breadth was positive at ~1.66 as investors bought large cap stocks. On provisional basis, FII's bought Rs 1.92bn worth of Indian equities and DII's sold Rs 7.74bn worth of equities.

Economic and Corporate Developments

- India's external debt rose 7.6% to $440.6 billion in 2013-14, owing to a rise in the deposits of non-resident Indians (NRIs) and foreign borrowings by banks.

A fall in the country's current account deficit and a revival in equity flows and borrowings by banks through currency swaps helped build foreign exchange reserves, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its review of India's external debt.

- Manufacturing activity rose to a four-month high in June, albeit the pick-up was too gradual, shows a widely-tracked HSBC purchasing managers' index (PMI). The index rose 51.5 points in June from 51.4 points in the previous month.

- Output in eight important infrastructure industries, termed the core sector, grew at a four-month low of 2.3% in May over a year before, compared to 4.2% in April, with half of these seeing a contraction in production, official data showed on Monday.

This might impact the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), as the core sector constitutes 38% of the index. However, some experts believe the low base of last year and favourable automobile numbers might save the month for IIP.

Buzzing Stocks

- Punj Lloyd closed 3.52% up at Rs 52.90 on BSE after the company received a letter of award for expansion and revamping of Ahmadi Depot, Kuwait from Kuwait National Petroleum Company.

Sterlite Technologies hit an upper circuit limit of 5% at Rs 68.60 on BSE after the company said it bagged nearly Rs 2500 crore of contracts from BSNL to implement end-to-end rollout of optical fiber network for defense services.

Hindustan Construction Company closed 3.75% up at Rs 48.45 on BSE after the company's subsidiary Lavasa Corporation filed draft prospectus with the market regulator for an initial public offer.

- Sasken Communication Technologies hit an upper circuit limit of 20% at Rs 265.55 on BSE after the company announced that it received arbitration award in its favor in the matter of Spreadtrum Communications Inc.

- Mahindra & Mahindra closed 4.03% up at Rs 1,194.15 on BSE after the company said its total tractor sales rose 8% to 29,884 units in June 2014 over June 2013.

Ramkrishna Forgings was locked at 5% upper circuit at Rs 184.55 on BSE after a domestic mutual fund bought 2.52% stake in the company on Monday, 30 June 2014.

Bharat Heavy Electricals closed 0.98% up at Rs 252.55 on BSE after the company said it successfully commissioned a 250 megawatts thermal unit in Rajasthan.

- L&T closed 1.40% up at Rs 1,725.35 on BSE after the company said that its construction division won a contract of Rs 2442 crore from Bharat Sanchar Nigam.

- Maruti Suzuki India closed 6.01% up at Rs 2584.85 on BSE after the company said its total vehicles sales rose 33.5% to 1.12 lakh units in June 2014 over June 2013.

- Hindalco Industries closed 6.76% up at Rs 175.20 on BSE after a foreign brokerage upgraded the stock to buy from sell rating.

- Jyoti Structures closed 1.64% up at Rs 61.80 on BSE after the company's board of directors approved issue of shares to qualified institutional buyers.

- Styrolution ABS (India) closed 1.99% up at Rs 601.25 on BSE following a global level deal involving Switzerland-based firm INEOS agreeing to buy its Germany-based partner BASF's 50% share in Styrolution.

- Nine metal shares rose by 0.47% to 6.76% on BSE as data showed China's manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace this year.

Hindalco Industries (up 6.76%), Hindustan Zinc (up 0.99%), Steel Authority of India (Sail) (up 3.59%), Sesa Sterlite (up 1.42%), Tata Steel (up 2.47%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 1.33%), NMDC (up 0.47%), Bhushan Steel (up 2.42%) and JSW Steel (up 2.55%), edged higher.

Market on 25/06/14

Indian markets are expected to open flat tracking marginally negative opening in SGX Nifty and most of the Asian markets.

US stock markets ended lower showing a substantial downturn over the course of the trading session on Tuesday, after moving mostly higher in morning trading. The negative sentiments were largely attributed to concerns about the escalating conflict in Iraq, which inspired some traders to cash in on the recent strength in the markets. Additionally, Syrian warplanes which struck targets in western Iraq indicated the broader regional conflict as reported Wall Street Journal added to the worries. Meanwhile, European stocks inched higher on Tuesday, taking back losses from the previous session despite some mixed economic data.

Back home, Indian shares rebounded sharply on Tuesday from two and a half weeks lows hit on Monday as a decline in crude prices eased concerns that inflation will quicken. Investors were also encouraged by media reports that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was under pressure to step down to help form an inclusive government by July 1.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 25,300 / 7,563 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 25,484 - 25,599 / 7,611 - 7,641 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 25,300 / 7,563 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct 25,185 - 25,001 / 7,532 - 7,485 levels.

Road Ministry approves over Rs.40,000cr highway projects

In a boost to the infrastructure sector, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has approved highway projects worth over Rs.40,000cr to be implemented in the next couple of years. The projects are to be implemented in the states of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and the Northeastern region which is expected to encourage tourism.

Economic and Political News

- India accounted for 5% of global steel production in May

- Give details of 14 projects awaiting clearances: CoalMin to CCL

- Railway fare hike may add up to 50 bps to inflation

- Oil output drops marginally in May, gas production dips

Corporate News

- Essar Oil board approves delisting from BSE and NSE

- Flipkart to launch tablet under private label on Jun 26

- Airtel signs definitive agreement with Loop Mobile