Tuesday 8 July 2014

Market slips as rail comes move

Despite accomplishing new feat in the opening trade on Tuesday, Nifty and its counterpart Sensex saw the biggest fall (in terms of points) in current calendar year. The street pressed the panic button when a sudden rush in profit-booking engulfed the market. In the mayhem that ensued, Sensex lost more than 500 points while broader markets got its share of batteringcrashed. Since the market started falling after a rather unexciting Railway Budget, experts feel the Union Budget, to be presented on July 10 may also lead to a similar crashed.

In the opening trade the Nifty had crossed 7800-mark for the first time.

The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 517.97 points or 1.98 percent to close at 25582.11 after hitting an intraday low of 25495.04 (down 605 points). The 50-share NSE Nifty plunged 163.95 points or 2.11 percent to 7623.20 after seeing day's low of 7,595.90. Meanwhile, the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices, which rallied the most year-to-date, were down 3.6 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively.

Such correction was needed as the market had seen hefty run up from elections days till pre-Budget, say experts, adding indices had overreacted on hopes of strong Budget. According to them, positive factors from the Budget already priced in and from here on, the market will focus on inflation, April-June quarter earnings and Budget. However, they advise buying on such sharp corrections as long term is very strong for India.

Market participants should brace for another 30-40 point correction from the current level because of the sharp sentiment damage which has happened today, says Kunal Bothra, Head of Advisory, LKP.

Dilip Bhat of Prabhudas Lilladher recommends traders to avoid buying the dips and keep their commitment light until Budget is out of market's way.

According to Bhat, in the short-term, the Nifty can fall to 7,300-7,400 maximum, but it will still remain a buy on dips market.

The fall in global markets too may have dampened sentiment with the major European markets losing half a percent.

However, foreign institutional investors were net buyers amid today's big correction; they bought Rs 422.72 crore worth of equity shares while domestic institutional investors sold Rs 399.56 crore of shares, as per provisional data available with exchange.

Meanwhile, on the home turf, Railway minister DV Sadananda Gowda today presented his first Rail Budget in the Lok Sabha. The minister's speech once again highlighted the financial mess that the Indian Railways is facing.

Allowing FDI in railway, safety, modernisation, encouraging private investment, launching of high-speed trains, diamond quadrilateral project and targets to complete pending projects were the main themes of the Railway Budget.

“The Railway Minister did touch upon key aspects and has shown the intent to turnaround Indian Railways into a commercially viable and customer friendly organization but the specifics of few announcements are awaited, says Arvind Mahajan, Partner and Head of Infrastructure and Government Services, KPMG.

Railway stocks like Kalindee Rail, Stone India, Kernex Microsystems, BEML and Titagarh Wagons plunged 5 percent each due to lack of clarity on various proposals and projects. Texmaco Rail (down 20 percent) was the biggest loser among these stocks whereas CMC (up 0.5 percent), A2Z Maintenance (up 5 percent) and Moser Baer (up 4 percent) saw buying interest.

On the sectoral front, BSE Realty Index hit very badly, falling over 7 percent followed by Capital Goods, Metal, Oil & Gas, Bank and Auto indices with 2-5 percent. Healthcare and IT fell over a percent.

Shares of L&T, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, ONGC, State Bank of India, BHEL, NTPC, Tata Steel, Coal India, DLF and Tata Power were prominent losers among largecaps, shedding 3-8 percent. The fall in TCS and HDFC Bank was less compared other stocks, declining over a percent.

However, housing finance company HDFC and drug maker Sun Pharma bucked the trend, gaining 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.

In the broader space, Adani Enterprises, Adani Power, Apollo Tyres, CESC, Crompton Greaves, GMR Infrastructure, IDBI Bank, IFCI, India Cements, JSW Energy, OBC, Power Finance Corporation, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Communications, Siemens, Unitech and Voltas plunged 5-12 percent.

Declining shares beat advancing ones by a ratio of 2230 to 770 on the BSE.

Meanwhile, the rupee recovered, appreciating by 23 paise to close at 59.78 a dollar. Brent crude (August futures) dropped below USD 110 a barrel on easing geopolitical tension, losing 0.6 percent to USD 109.58 a barrel.

Wednesday 2 July 2014

Market view on 2/7/14

Views on markets today

- Markets gained for the third straight day, amid strong buying interest from foreign institutional investors, with auto and metal shares leading the gains. However, IT stocks retreated because of a weak growth forecast by Gartner.

The Sensex climbed 102 points to close at 25,516 and the Nifty advanced 23 points to end at 7,635.

- Auto and Metal indices were among the top sectoral gainers up 2-3%. Capital Goods and Realty indices edged up 1% each. Meanwhile, capital goods shares continued their uptrend after a private survey showed that India's manufacturing sector growth in June. L&T and BHEL ended up 1% each.

- IT majors witnessed profit taking after IT research firm Gartner trimmed its worldwide IT spend growth forecast to 2.1% from 3.2% earlier. TCS, Infosys and Wipro ended down 0.8-1.2%.

- Among the BSE Sectoral Indices - indices ended the day in positive while 4 ended the day in negative. Top Gainers: BSE Auto up by 3.24% and BSE Metal by 2.03%. Top Losers: BSE Teck down by 0.55% and BSE Oil & Gas by 0.54%.

Market breadth was positive at ~1.66 as investors bought large cap stocks. On provisional basis, FII's bought Rs 1.92bn worth of Indian equities and DII's sold Rs 7.74bn worth of equities.


Economic and Corporate Developments

- India's external debt rose 7.6% to $440.6 billion in 2013-14, owing to a rise in the deposits of non-resident Indians (NRIs) and foreign borrowings by banks.

A fall in the country's current account deficit and a revival in equity flows and borrowings by banks through currency swaps helped build foreign exchange reserves, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its review of India's external debt.

- Manufacturing activity rose to a four-month high in June, albeit the pick-up was too gradual, shows a widely-tracked HSBC purchasing managers' index (PMI). The index rose 51.5 points in June from 51.4 points in the previous month.

- Output in eight important infrastructure industries, termed the core sector, grew at a four-month low of 2.3% in May over a year before, compared to 4.2% in April, with half of these seeing a contraction in production, official data showed on Monday.

This might impact the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), as the core sector constitutes 38% of the index. However, some experts believe the low base of last year and favourable automobile numbers might save the month for IIP.


Buzzing Stocks

- Punj Lloyd closed 3.52% up at Rs 52.90 on BSE after the company received a letter of award for expansion and revamping of Ahmadi Depot, Kuwait from Kuwait National Petroleum Company.

Sterlite Technologies hit an upper circuit limit of 5% at Rs 68.60 on BSE after the company said it bagged nearly Rs 2500 crore of contracts from BSNL to implement end-to-end rollout of optical fiber network for defense services.

Hindustan Construction Company closed 3.75% up at Rs 48.45 on BSE after the company's subsidiary Lavasa Corporation filed draft prospectus with the market regulator for an initial public offer.

- Sasken Communication Technologies hit an upper circuit limit of 20% at Rs 265.55 on BSE after the company announced that it received arbitration award in its favor in the matter of Spreadtrum Communications Inc.

- Mahindra & Mahindra closed 4.03% up at Rs 1,194.15 on BSE after the company said its total tractor sales rose 8% to 29,884 units in June 2014 over June 2013.

Ramkrishna Forgings was locked at 5% upper circuit at Rs 184.55 on BSE after a domestic mutual fund bought 2.52% stake in the company on Monday, 30 June 2014.

Bharat Heavy Electricals closed 0.98% up at Rs 252.55 on BSE after the company said it successfully commissioned a 250 megawatts thermal unit in Rajasthan.

- L&T closed 1.40% up at Rs 1,725.35 on BSE after the company said that its construction division won a contract of Rs 2442 crore from Bharat Sanchar Nigam.

- Maruti Suzuki India closed 6.01% up at Rs 2584.85 on BSE after the company said its total vehicles sales rose 33.5% to 1.12 lakh units in June 2014 over June 2013.

- Hindalco Industries closed 6.76% up at Rs 175.20 on BSE after a foreign brokerage upgraded the stock to buy from sell rating.

- Jyoti Structures closed 1.64% up at Rs 61.80 on BSE after the company's board of directors approved issue of shares to qualified institutional buyers.

- Styrolution ABS (India) closed 1.99% up at Rs 601.25 on BSE following a global level deal involving Switzerland-based firm INEOS agreeing to buy its Germany-based partner BASF's 50% share in Styrolution.

- Nine metal shares rose by 0.47% to 6.76% on BSE as data showed China's manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace this year.

Hindalco Industries (up 6.76%), Hindustan Zinc (up 0.99%), Steel Authority of India (Sail) (up 3.59%), Sesa Sterlite (up 1.42%), Tata Steel (up 2.47%), Jindal Steel & Power (up 1.33%), NMDC (up 0.47%), Bhushan Steel (up 2.42%) and JSW Steel (up 2.55%), edged higher.